Forecast for the sector development

In view of the macroeconomic outlook, the market research institute Drewry slightly upgraded its forecast for global container throughput and now anticipates growth of 2.3 % (previously: 2.0 %) for container volumes at the world’s ports in 2024.

For the shipping region China, the most important for the Port of Hamburg, Drewry expects to see slower growth in container throughput of 1.4 % in 2024. The market experts justified their downgrade for China by stating the current uncertainties regarding the economic situation of the world’s second largest economy.

The forecasts for European ports indicate a moderate recovery during the forecast period. Experts estimate a growth rate for the European shipping region of 3.3 % this year. This upturn is expected in all shipping regions – with the exception of the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea shipping region. A moderate recovery of 3.4 % is also expected in container throughput for the North-West European ports as compared to 2023.

The moderate growth in container demand is countered by a wave of expanded ship capacity due to hit the market in the next few years. The market research institute AXS Alphaliner expects the fleet’s total carrying capacity to rise to 30.1 million TEU in the forecast period, corresponding to an increase of 9.8 %. A total of 467 ships with a carrying capacity of approximately 3.1 million TEU are scheduled for delivery in 2024. Of these, 13 ships will be in the +18,000 TEU category.

The gap between expected container demand and available capacity has never been so wide and without the adoption of the relevant countermeasures is resulting in the current drop in container freight rates – likely to last for some time – and lower profitability for shipping companies. Whereas the sector is thought to have earned US$ 31 billion in 2023, a cumulative operating loss of US$ 15 billion is expected for 2024.

In view of the continued increase in ship sizes and the resulting rise in container volumes per ship call, the pressure on terminals and hinterland transport systems due to handling peaks will continue to grow. Attacks on ships in the Suez Canal and the resulting diversion of ships will also temporarily put additional pressure on ports as a result of unscheduled ship calls. As a result, Drewry expects to see poorer productivity for the European ports.

The most recent medium-term forecast for cargo and passenger transport in Germany issued by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMDV) based on data from September 2023 anticipates that the entire German freight market will recover slightly in 2024 as a result of the macroeconomic outlook. In terms of traffic performance – transport volume multiplied by distance travelled – experts predict a rise of 2.1 %. With regard to the individual modes of transport, a slight increase of 1.7 % is expected for road freight volume in 2024 while traffic performance is expected to achieve growth of 2.3 %. The volume of goods transported by rail is set to show a similar development. Rail transport volumes will increase by 1.8 % during the forecast period, with performance increasing by 2.1 %. At the same time, intermodal traffic is expected to pick up pace in the current year. Volumes will be up by 2.6 % and performance by 3.1 %.