Expected Group performance
Comparison with the forecast of the previous year
The guidance for 2023 published in the 2022 Annual Report was subject to a high degree of uncertainty due to the unpredictability of future average revenues and macroeconomic developments. With the publication of the interim statement for January to March 2023, this guidance was downgraded due to the divergent development at segment level: expected container throughput was downgraded to “slight increase” and revenue in the Container segment to “moderate decrease”. At the same time, revenue for the Group, the Port Logistics subgroup and the Intermodal segment were upgraded.
Based on the preliminary figures for the year available after the first half of the year, full-year guidance for 2023 was once again significantly adjusted in an ad hoc statement on 27 July 2023. Expectations for container throughput were downgraded once again to “significant decrease”, while guidance for container transport was downgraded to “last year's level”. As a result, the guidance for revenue at Group level, as well as for the Port Logistics subgroup and the Container and Intermodal segments was downgraded. Moreover, the earnings corridor (EBIT) for the Group was decreased to between € 115 million and € 135 million, to between € 100 million and € 120 million for the Port Logistics subgroup and to “slight decrease” for the Intermodal segment.
In the interim statement for January to September 2023, guidance for container transport and earnings of the Intermodal segment was downgraded to “moderate decrease”. At the same time, the capital expenditure range for the Group was raised to between € 270 million and € 320 million and to between € 240 million and € 290 million for the Port Logistics subgroup. Overall statement on business performance
Both the development of container throughput and the development of revenue for the Group, the Port Logistics subgroup and the Container segment were confirmed at year-end. A “significant decrease” in container throughput was disclosed at the end of the year. Moreover, there was also only a “moderate increase” in revenue of the Intermodal segment.
The operating results (EBIT) for the Group and for the Port Logistics subgroup were below the ranges forecast due to the weaker-than-expected performance of the Intermodal segment.
While capital expenditure at Group level remained at the upper end of the range, capital expenditure in the Port Logistics subgroup slightly exceeded the stated range.
Expected earnings position
Please note: Due to the unpredictability regarding the future development of geopolitical tensions at the time of reporting, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the effects of the announced realignment of syndicate structures of shipping companies, the forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty.
In the Port Logistics subgroup, a significant increase is expected for container throughput and a moderate increase for container transport compared to the previous year. All in all, a moderate year-on-year increase in revenue is expected. A significant increase is forecast for the Container segment and a moderate increase for the Intermodal segment.
The Port Logistics subgroup anticipates EBIT in the range of € 70 million to € 100 million for the 2024 financial year. A strong decrease is forecast for the Container segment and a strong increase for the Intermodal segment.
For the Real Estate subgroup, revenue is expected to remain at the prior-year level. A significant year-on-year increase in the operating result (EBIT) is regarded as possible.
At Group level, HHLA expects a moderate increase in revenue and an operating result (EBIT) in the range of € 85 million to € 115 million.
Expected financial position
Based on the liquidity available as of 31 December 2023, HHLA assumes that it will have sufficient funds to meet its payment obligations at all times.
At Group level, capital expenditure is expected to be in the range of € 400 million to € 450 million in 2024. The Port Logistics subgroup is likely to account for € 360 million to € 410 million of this amount.
In the Container segment, investments will focus on expanding capacity at domestic and international terminals, and on expanding the Group’s own transport and handling capacities in the Intermodal segment.
HHLA remains committed to its results-oriented dividend policy, which aims to pay out between 50 % and 70 % of annual net profit after minority interests in the form of dividends.