Expected Group performance

Comparison with the forecast of the previous year

The forecast for 2021 published in the 2020 Annual Report was already upgraded for container transport and revenue of the Port Logistics subgroup and the Group on publication of the half-year results. In October, guidance for almost all key figures of the 2021 financial year was adjusted. In the wake of this, the forecast for revenue in the Port Logistics subgroup and the Group was updated to around € 1,410 million and € 1,450 million, respectively (previously: a significant increase for each). Group EBIT was raised to around € 205 million (previously: € 153 million to € 178 million) and EBIT for the Port Logistics subgroup to around € 190 million (previously: € 140 million to € 165 million). In addition, capital expenditure was reduced from between € 250 million and € 280 million at Group level to approximately € 200 million as a result of delays in planned additions to assets.

While there was only a slight year-on-year increase in container throughput at the end of the year (expected: moderate increase), all other key figures were in line with or exceeded the most recent guidance.

Expected earnings position

The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the uncertainties already affecting the general economic environment. For the HHLA container terminal in Odessa, which is directly affected by the war, it must be assumed that business activity will come to a standstill, at least temporarily. Future developments cannot be foreseen, as they depend on the overall situation in the region. We can also expect that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have unforeseeable consequences for the economy in Europe and beyond, particularly as a result of the sanctions announced and possible retaliatory measures.

Due to the uncertainties described above, it is not currently possible to issue a reliable forecast. In HHLA’s outlook for 2022, therefore, the anticipated volume and revenue trends are based on the currently foreseeable macroeconomic environment. In addition to the expectations for Container Terminal Odessa (CTO) explained above, storage fees in the Container segment are expected to normalise gradually over the course of the second half of the year. Figures for expected EBIT are presented in ranges wide enough to reflect the foreseeable uncertainties stated above.

Potential effects on the valuation of CTO assets cannot be reliably measured at the time of issuing this forecast and have therefore not been taken into account. Course of business and economic situation; events after the balance sheet date; risk and opportunity report

In the Port Logistics subgroup, a moderate increase is expected for both container throughput and container transport compared to the previous year. All in all, a moderate year-on-year increase in revenue is expected. After the operating result (EBIT) in the 2021 financial year was positively impacted by the spike in storage fees and a higher subsidy for route prices granted retroactively, EBIT of between € 160 million and € 195 million for the Port Logistics subgroup is regarded as possible for the current financial year, given the existing risks. Within this range, it is possible that segment EBIT will decrease strongly in the Container segment and increase moderately in the Intermodal segment.

A moderate year-on-year increase in revenue and EBIT is expected for the Real Estate subgroup.

At Group level, HHLA expects to see a moderate increase in revenue and an operating result (EBIT) within a range between € 175 million and € 210 million.

Expected financial position

Based on the liquidity available as of 31 December 2021, HHLA assumes that it will have sufficient funds at all times to meet its payment obligations.

In order to further increase productivity and expand capacity in the Container and Intermodal segments, capital expenditure at Group level is expected to be in the range of € 300 million to € 350 million in 2022. The Port Logistics subgroup will account for € 270 million to € 320 million of this amount. The main focus of capital expenditure in the Container segment will be on the efficient use of existing terminal space at the Port of Hamburg and the expansion of foreign terminals. In the Intermodal segment, investments will focus on the expansion of the Group’s own transport and handling capacities. The forecast for capital expenditure is subject to the condition that there are no unplanned delays in additions to assets due to material shortages or long-term disruption to supply chains. HHLA continues to consider the scalability of its capital expenditure and will adjust it – where necessary – to future economic developments in order to safeguard the financial stability of the Group.

HHLA will do everything in its power to protect the lives and well-being of all its employees in Ukraine. A further area of focus for the management is on protecting the health of employees, as well as maintaining all systems that play a key role in the critical infrastructure of the Container and Intermodal segments.

HHLA remains committed to its results-oriented dividend policy, which aims to pay out between 50 % and 70 % of annual net profit after minority interests in the form of dividends.