Forecast for the sector development

Despite the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, global container traffic showed remarkable stability in the past year. This general robustness was strengthened by the easing of various tariff disputes. The mutual abolition of port fees between China and the United States has helped to revive the outlook for international trade. As a result, market research institute Drewry has upgraded its forecast for global container throughput and now expects growth of 1.8 %. Compared to the surprisingly strong growth of 5.5 % last year, momentum will therefore ease off in the forecasting period. At the same time, the overall risk situation remains restrained in view of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

For China – the Port of Hamburg’s most important shipping region – Drewry expects slower container throughput growth of 1.9 % in 2026. Container traffic between China and the United States looks set to decrease further. At the same time, the question arises as to how long China can export surplus industrial goods to other markets without this leading to growing inventories or retaliatory measures from its major trading partners.

The outlook for the European ports indicates robust growth, albeit weaker than in 2025. Throughput is expected to increase by 3.0 % for the European shipping region. In the ports of north-western Europe, growth is expected to be below average at 1.6 %. Drewry also expects momentum to slow in the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, Scandinavia and the Baltic region.

The Red Sea remains crucial to the functioning of global supply chains, particularly for the key East-West routes between Asia and Europe, as well as between the Middle East, South Asia and Europe. According to Drewry, the decision by container shipping companies on whether, and at what pace, they will resume shipping through the Red Sea is one of the key factors for the development of the global shipping market in 2026. Even an orderly and gradual resumption of transits could lead to a significant rise in container volumes arriving, thus increasing the risk of European ports being overwhelmed.

With regard to the global fleet of container ships, the brief slump in orders in 2023, when only 1.6 million TEU of new builds were ordered, will lead to lower deliveries in 2026. In conjunction with an assumed increase in scrapping, this is likely to temporarily slow fleet growth to around 3 %. Under normal market conditions, this would be a positive development. However, due to the expected resumption of transit through the Suez Canal, journey times will shorten and thus increase the amount of effective capacity available on the market. According to Drewry, the resulting deterioration in the global balance of supply and demand is likely to increase pressure on freight rates in the forecasting period and reduce average profitability for shipping companies. As a result, the sector is expected to achieve a cumulative operating profit of around USD 1 billion in 2026, following an estimated USD 32 billion in 2025.

The latest medium-term forecast for cargo and passenger transport in Germany, issued by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMDV) and based on data from August 2025, predicts a slight recovery in overall German freight transport in 2026 due to the macroeconomic outlook. Transport volumes are expected to be up by 1.0 % year-on-year. In terms of traffic performance – transport volume multiplied by distance travelled – experts predict a rise of 1.1 %. With regard to the individual modes of transport, an increase of 1.2 % is expected for road freight volume in 2026 while traffic performance is expected to achieve growth of 1.3 %. By contrast, the volume of goods transported by rail will show slower growth. Rail transport volumes will increase by 0.3 % during the forecasting period, with performance increasing by 1.1 %. At the same time, intermodal traffic is expected to make further strong gains in the current year. Volumes will be up by 2.6 % and performance by 3.2 %.