Macroeconomic development

According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy remained resilient in 2025. Despite the uncertainties surrounding economic policy resulting from the decisions of the US government – the rate of growth in the first half of 2025 was only slightly weaker than in the second half of 2024. According to the IMF’s latest estimates, the global growth rate was 2.4 % in the third quarter of 2025 and thus higher than expected, although the rates varied significantly between countries and economic sectors. A major driver of global economic growth was the continued rise of technology-related investments, including in artificial intelligence (AI), which created positive stimuli in more technologically advanced regions, such as the USA and parts of Asia. Supportive fiscal and monetary measures shored up this trend, with favourable financing terms and the adaptability of the private sector having a particularly stabilising effect. For 2025 as a whole, the IMF expects global economic growth of 3.3 %.

Despite the ongoing uncertainty due to volatile US tariff policies, world trade made robust progress in 2025. Foreign trade increased noticeably throughout the year in Asia in particular. The region’s export-oriented semiconductor and technology industry benefited especially from rapid growth in capital spending in the IT and technology sector. Since the IMF’s last publication in October 2025, global trade tensions have eased but may reignite again at any time.

Economic growth in the advanced economies varied in 2025. The total economic output of the industrialised nations expanded by 1.7 % during the reporting period. In the United States, growth was boosted in particular by rising investment and spending on technologies. According to estimates, this added approximately 0.3 percentage points to average annualised GDP growth in the first three quarters and thus offset the impact of the longest government shutdown in US history. In the eurozone, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.4 %, driven by strong growth in France and Spain. Germany, however, once again lagged behind the development in other member states.

In the emerging economies, economic growth remained robust overall. According to IMF estimates, economic growth reached 4.4 % in 2025. China’s GDP expanded by 5.0 % during the reporting period and was thus exactly in line with the government’s growth target. While Chinese exports to the USA shrank by approximately one fifth due to the trade war, exports to other global regions increased significantly. This was due to the successful diversification of sales markets achieved by Chinese manufacturers.

According to the latest IMF estimates, economic growth slowed significantly in Russia. Growth of just 0.6 % is expected for 2025 following GDP growth of around 4.3 % in the previous year – due in particular to higher state spending on armaments. The main reasons for the slowdown include high interest rates, a strained situation on the Russian labour market and the continuation of western sanctions. Following growth of 2.9 % in 2024, the IMF’s forecast for Ukraine in October 2025 anticipated slower growth of 2.0 % in the reporting year. By contrast, the Estonian economy looks set to grow by 0.5 % in 2025 after a slight downturn in the previous year (IMF, October 2025).

The German economy stabilised at a low level in the past year – albeit without any notable signs of growth momentum. The ongoing weakness of its industrial sector remained a key stress factor with job losses continuing in this sector. German exports continued to suffer from weak global demand. According to IMF estimates, Europe’s largest economy achieved full-year growth of just 0.2 % in 2025.