Macroeconomic forecast

Despite countervailing effects, the global economy looks set to remain stable in 2026. The negative impact of changes in trade policy will continue to be offset by high levels of investment. In particular, the strong increase in technology-related expenditure – including the use of artificial intelligence (AI) – is shoring up global economic activity. This effect is particularly pronounced in North America and Asia. Moreover, fiscal and monetary policy measures, a persistently favourable financing environment and a highly adaptable private sector are providing additional stability.

At the same time, downside risks dominate the broader outlook. A reassessment of the expected productivity gains from AI technologies could dampen investment activity and trigger corrections on the financial markets that could go beyond AI-related companies and affect other market segments. Geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts may also escalate quickly and increase the uncertainty on the international stage. Despite these risks, the International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to reach 3.3 %. This corresponds to a slight upgrade of 0.2 percentage points on its previous forecast.

The IMF’s economists forecast growth of 2.6 % for global trade in the forecasting period. The expected slowdown is primarily due to front-loading effects and adjustments in trade flows to new trade policy conditions. Over the medium term, the use of expansionary fiscal policies in economies with current account surpluses is likely to lead to a reduction in global disparities. At the same time, the tech-driven boost to capital spending is likely to continue to drive capital flows to the United States.

Economic growth in the advanced economies looks set to accelerate slightly in 2026 compared with the previous year. This is mainly due to an improved outlook for the USA, for which the IMF upgraded its forecast from October 2025 by 0.3 percentage points. For emerging and developing markets, however, overall growth is expected to be lower than in 2025, even though the International Monetary Fund has upgraded its outlook by 0.2 percentage points since its October forecast in 2025.

The picture is mixed for those regions of particular relevance to HHLA. Growth momentum in China is likely to weaken further. Nevertheless, the outlook was increased by 0.3 percentage points to an expected growth rate of 4.5 %. This is due to lower effective US tariffs on Chinese goods following the one-year truce agreed in November 2025 in the China-US trade conflict, as well as the announced Chinese economic stimuli, which are expected to be implemented over a period of two years.

The IMF expects to see economic growth stabilise in Russia during the forecasting period. Growth will remain very low, however, as war, sanctions and restricted technology transfer continue to erode productivity. In view of the high inflation rate, the country’s government and central bank have significantly tightened monetary and fiscal policy, which is dampening demand. The outlook has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points compared to October 2025. Following growth of 0.6 % in 2025, growth is expected to reach of 0.8 % in 2026.

Due to the ongoing war, the outlook for Ukraine remains particularly uncertain. In its October 2025 forecast, the IMF expects to see an increase in economic output of 4.5 %.

Growth is also expected to accelerate slightly in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe. According to experts, the region is likely to achieve growth of 2.3 % in 2026, compared to 2.0 % in the previous year.

The eurozone economy is likely to stabilise during the forecasting period. The effects of the planned increase in defence spending are not expected to become noticeable until future years, as the target levels for spending are to be gradually increased until 2035. Compared to other regions, the eurozone is also benefiting less from the latest tech-driven investment boom. The lingering effects of the ongoing increase in energy prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will also continue to impact industry. The IMF has slightly upgraded its forecast for the eurozone region by 0.1 percentage points. Growth in macroeconomic activity of 1.3 % is forecast for 2026. According to the latest IMF estimates from October 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Estonia will rise by 1.5 % while Italy’s economic output is expected to increase by 0.7 %.

Stronger growth than previously forecast is expected for Germany in 2026. This is largely due to extensive government spending programmes, which are likely to provide short-term support and largely offset the negative effects of new US tariffs. Furthermore, the delayed effects of monetary easing could support both consumer spending and company-related expenses. Against this backdrop, the IMF expects German economic output to grow by 1.1 %, after forecasting growth of 0.9 % in October 2025. This means that Germany looks set to grow more markedly than other G7 countries and will no longer be lagging behind the major industrial economies.