Forecast for the sector development

Despite unexpectedly strong volume growth in 2024, market research institute Drewry has maintained its forecast for global container throughput at a growth rate of 2.8%. However, due to the higher baseline in 2024, absolute container volumes for 2025 look set to be higher than originally forecast. The outlook is clouded, however, by the strong increase in trade policy uncertainties associated in particular with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Over the short term, however, experts believe that growth will accelerate as companies are likely to stockpile in preparation for potential trade barriers and tariffs.

For China – the Port of Hamburg’s most important shipping region – Drewry expects slower container throughput growth of 1.8 % in 2025. The weaker forecast for China is mainly due to additional import tariffs imposed by both the European Union and the USA on Chinese imports since 2024. The outlook for the European ports indicates moderate growth in the forecast period. Experts estimate growth of 3.8 % for the European shipping region in 2025. Compared to other ports in the region, however, below-average growth of just 2.9 % is expected for the ports of north-western Europe. By contrast, a strong upturn of 6.6 % is forecast for container throughput in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea shipping region.

The market experts at Drewry expect that the productivity of ports around the world will decline in 2025, while pressure on the terminals and hinterland transport networks will continue to increase due to rising throughput peaks. The causes include attacks in the Suez Canal and the resulting diversion of ships, further strikes expected at US ports, and unscheduled ship calls. At the same time, the Gemini cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd due to launch in February 2025 will introduce a new hub-and-spoke system with fewer direct port calls on the main shipping routes. Changing the timetables will take time and result in some temporary interruptions to services.

The global fleet of container ships is currently growing faster than demand for cargo capacity. According to estimates by the market research institute Drewry, ship capacity increased by 11 % or approximately 3 million TEU in 2024. Despite the potential capacity overhang, 2024 was a surprisingly good year for the container shipping sector. Shipping companies achieved above-average profitability – unseen since the pandemic years. This was largely due to ongoing inefficiencies in the supply chain, particularly due to diversions in the Red Sea, as well as an unexpectedly strong increase in demand for containers. As a result of these developments, EBIT of approximately USD 75 billion is expected for 2024. For 2025, market analysts forecast a cumulative operating profit of approximately USD 64 billion.

The latest medium-term forecast for cargo and passenger transport in Germany, issued by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMDV) and based on data from October 2024, anticipates that the entire German freight market will recover slightly in 2025 due to the macroeconomic outlook. Transport volumes are expected to be up by 0.4 % year-on-year. In terms of traffic performance – transport volume multiplied by distance travelled – experts predict a rise of 1.2 %. With regard to the individual modes of transport, a slight increase of 0.5 % is expected for road freight volume in 2025 while traffic performance is expected to achieve growth of 1.4 %. The volume of goods transported by rail is set to show a similar development. Rail transport volumes will increase by 0.6 % during the forecast period, with performance increasing by 1.2 %. At the same time, intermodal traffic is expected to make further strong gains in the current year, albeit at a slower rate than in the previous year. Volumes will be up by 2.4 % and performance by 2.8 %.