Macroeconomic forecast

At a time when economic growth was already sluggish, the global economy now also has to contend with heightened economic and political uncertainty. Despite being buoyed by less restrictive monetary policy and more favourable prospects for consumer spending, the economic environment is being weighed down by rising uncertainty and increasing protectionism. New customs duties may exacerbate existing trade conflicts, curb investment, distort the flow of goods and once again disrupt supply chains. US President Donald Trump has announced wide-ranging tariffs targeting China, Canada and Mexico, and is also threatening other countries with punitive measures. Despite these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic and forecasts economic growth of 3.3 %. This upbeat outlook is primarily based on positive developments in the United States, which are offsetting the downgraded trends of other major economies. However, global growth remains below its long-term average.

According to IMF estimates, global trade is likely to grow by 3.2 % during the forecast period. Compared to the previous forecast, this outlook has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points. This is due to the sharp increase in uncertainty with regard to trade policy, which looks set to have a disproportionately strong impact on the capital spending of trade-intensive companies.

The pace of economic growth in the advanced economies is expected to increase slightly year-on-year in 2025, mainly due to an improved outlook for the USA (+0.5 percentage points compared with October 2024). Stable growth is expected for the emerging and developing economies.

The economic outlook for those regions of particular importance to HHLA is mixed for 2025. The IMF expects China’s economic growth to continue to slow. However, the economic outlook for the world’s second largest economy has been upgraded by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6 %. There was a slight upturn in Chinese economic activity in 2024, which should continue to a certain extent in 2025 as a result of the tax package announced in November 2024. This may partly offset the negative impact of increased uncertainty with regard to trade policy and the strain on the real estate market.

The Russian economy is set to weaken in the forecast period as an increasing share of economic output is being channelled into war efforts and causing bottlenecks in other areas. As a result, output growth is expected to slow significantly, while inflationary pressure remains high. The IMF has downgraded its outlook for Russia by 0.1 percentage points compared to October 2024 and now forecasts growth of just 1.4 % for the forecast period, following 3.8 % in 2024.

The prospects for the Ukrainian economy are particularly uncertain due to the ongoing war and depend to a large extent on how the conflict develops. In its October 2024 outlook, the IMF forecast economic growth of 2.5 %.

For the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe, the IMF’s experts forecast economic growth of 2.2 % – somewhat below the region’s 3.2 % growth in the previous year. 

The IMF predicts that the eurozone will continue to gather momentum in the forecast period but does not expect growth to be as robust as originally anticipated. Unexpectedly weaker growth in late 2024, particularly in the manufacturing sector, coupled with growing political uncertainty led the IMF to downgrade its outlook by 0.2 percentage points. Economic output in the eurozone is expected to grow by 1.0 % in 2025. According to the latest IMF estimates of October 2024, gross domestic product (GDP) in Estonia is likely to grow by 1.6 % while economic output in Italy is expected to increase by 0.7 %.

According to IMF estimates, the German economy will once again grow more slowly than expected in 2025. Although the EU’s largest economy is set to emerge from recession, the IMF has significantly downgraded its growth forecast. After forecasting growth of 0.8 % in October 2024, the IMF now expects the German economy to grow by just 0.3 % in 2025. This means that Germany looks set to have the lowest growth rate among the G7 countries once again.