Macroeconomic Environment

The global economy is experiencing moderate growth. Although many early indicators signal a revival of the global economy in the forecast period, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that this upturn will be weaker than forecast in October 2015. The institute has therefore lowered its forecast for global GDP in 2016 by 0.2 percentage points and now expects growth of 3.4 %. The IMF has also downgraded its current forecast for global trade by 0.7 percentage points and now expects more moderate growth of 3.4 %.

Sentiment indicators in the advanced economies point to a slight economic upturn. The upturn is expected to be driven above all by an expansionary monetary policy and low oil prices. However, low commodity prices – combined with structural problems in the producing countries – are at the same time slowing economic development in the emerging economies, though the fundamental trend remains positive. According to the IMF, the Chinese economy will continue to slow down as a result of politically initiated structural changes. In light of the revenue shortfalls from crude oil exports, isolation from the global capital markets and restricted trade due to sanctions, the Russian economy is mired in crisis. The IMF has lowered its forecast by 0.4 percentage points since its outlook in October 2015. Driven by consumer spending, GDP in the eurozone is expected to maintain its upward trajectory. Although growth in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe is likely to fall below the prior-year figure in 2016, the IMF has upgraded its forecast for this region by 0.1 percentage points since October due to positive sentiment indicators. The IMF’s experts anticipate further growth for the German economy with a slight improvement on the previous year.