Macroeconomic Development

Global economic expansion slowed slightly over the course of the year. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.3 percentage points down on the previous year at 3.1 % in 2015. This is the lowest rate of growth since the 2008/2009 financial crisis. The main cause was a noticeable slowdown down of the emerging economies. The year as a whole was dominated in particular by the supply-driven decline in oil prices. In line with this below-average global economy growth, world trade was also very weak in 2015. At 2.6 %, growth in world trade once again lagged behind global GDP.

The advanced economies continued their moderate recovery in 2015. The main driver was the USA. By contrast, the pace of growth in the emerging economies slowed for the fifth consecutive year. With GDP growth of 4.0 %, they still easily outperformed the advanced economies but displayed the slowest rate of expansion since 2009. The Chinese economy also continued to lose momentum. According to the IMF, growth in the world’s second largest economy dropped below 7 % in 2015.

The Russian economy is mired in a deep recession. In addition to the ongoing EU and US sanctions, the substantial decline in oil prices has also had a negative impact on the country. As a result, the Russian economy declined by 3.7 % in 2015. The Ukrainian economy is also in deep crisis. According to IMF estimates from October 2015, economic output in Ukraine is expected to contract by 9.0 % in 2015 as a whole. At the same time, however, the latest sentiment indicators point towards a gradual stabilisation of economic activity. By contrast, the pace of growth in the European currency union accelerated by 0.6 percentage points to 1.5 %. Growth is being driven mainly by domestic demand. GDP in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe expanded strongly with a stable growth rate of 3.4 %.

The latest economic indicators for the German economy suggest solid growth of 1.5 %. Germany’s foreign trade benefited from the increased competitiveness of its exports due to low euro exchange rates. According to the IMF, exports grew by 5.4 % and German imports by 5.7 % in the reporting period.