Sector development

In its Container Forecaster for the second quarter published in June 2024, the market research institute Drewry estimates that container throughput at global ports is growing faster than expected. In the first quarter of 2024, for example, throughput rose by 9.0 % – the sharpest rise for eleven quarters, driven chiefly by strong growth in Asian exports. The preliminary throughput figures for April, however, point to a possible slackening in demand. According to the most recent estimates, growth in global container throughput in the second quarter of 2024 will slow to 3.4 %, compared to the same quarter last year. The dynamic trend in demand and, above all, the disruption to shipping lines due to attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea are increasing operational pressure on ports and leading to falling throughput productivity, longer ship dwell times at the ports and longer waits.

Despite the crisis in the Red Sea region, the European ports made a strong start to the year. Container volumes in the Europe shipping region rose by 6.2 % overall in the first quarter of 2024 – the strongest increase since peak post-coronavirus demand growth in the second quarter of 2021. The experts at Drewry believe that this positive trend indicates a turning point in container demand, especially as the growth extends across all European shipping regions. Scandinavia and the Baltic region in particular outperformed all other European regions in the first quarter with growth of 11.6 %. Drewry also forecasts rising volumes at European ports in the second quarter of 2024, albeit with reduced growth momentum.

The throughput figures for the North Range ports reported so far by the port authorities/operators generally confirm Drewry’s regional growth forecast – albeit with differing levels of momentum at the individual ports. Container throughput in Rotterdam, Europe’s largest container port, of 6.8 million TEU in the first half of the year was up 2.2 % on the same period last year. There was also stronger container throughput growth in Antwerp–Bruges of 4.1 % to 6.6 million TEU in the first half of the year. At the time of reporting, comparable data for the first half of 2024 was not yet available for all ports in the German Bight. In the period January to April, container throughput volumes at the Bremen ports rose strongly by 12.8 % year-on-year to a total of 1.5 million TEU. By contrast, container throughput in Wilhelmshaven fell by 12.7 % to 135 thousand TEU in the first quarter of 2024. The Port of Hamburg recorded volume growth of 1.1 % to 1.9 million TEU in the first quarter of 2024.