Macroeconomic development

In its World Economic Outlook published in mid-July 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that the global economy remains on the growth trajectory anticipated in April 2024, despite trade tensions and political uncertainty. In its July report, the IMF’s growth forecast for the current financial year remained unchanged at 3.2 %. Differences in the momentum of economic activity have slightly narrowed the output divergence between national economies. However, the continued above-average rise in service prices is holding up the progress made in tackling inflation and thus making a return to normal monetary policy more difficult.

Global economic activity and world trade firmed up at the turn of the year, with trade spurred by strong exports from Asia, especially in the technology sector. Relative to the IMF report in April 2024, growth was better than expected in many countries in the first quarter of 2024. Japan and the United States, however, lagged behind expectations.

In China, resurgent domestic consumption fuelled a positive trend in the first quarter, aided by an apparently temporary rise in exports as a delayed response to last year’s rise in global demand. While the Chinese economy grew by 5.3 % in the first quarter of 2024, the faltering property market of the world’s second-largest economy meant that second-quarter growth of 4.7 % fell short of expectations.

There are signs of an economic recovery in the eurozone, driven by stronger momentum in the service sector and unexpectedly high net exports in the first half of the year. Economic activity in the eurozone therefore seems to have bottomed out. According to the IMF, however, growth prospects in Germany have not yet improved. Ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector indicate a more sluggish recovery. German exports are currently barely benefiting from the global economic upturn and fell by 0.5 % between January and May 2024 compared to the same period last year. Imports in the first five months were down 5.6 % year-on-year.