Sector development

Growth in global container throughput exceeded expectations in each of the three quarters of 2024. According to the latest Drewry estimates, strong growth is also expected for the fourth quarter – albeit at a slower pace than in the previous quarters. Against this backdrop, the experts once again upgraded their full-year forecast. The market research institute anticipates a strong increase of 6.1 % for 2024 as a whole, which is similar to the Covid-related 7 % growth of 2021.

In addition to dynamic growth in demand, the disruption to shipping lines as a result of attacks by Huthi rebels in the Red Sea and the port strike on the US East and Gulf Coast ramped up the pressure on ports. Global throughput productivity remained below pre-pandemic levels, which meant that the major ports in particular recorded high waiting times and dwell times for ships.

The growing momentum in container throughput was apparent in virtually all shipping regions. Drewry anticipates growth of 5.9 % for Asia, the world’s highest-throughput region, in 2024. Growth at container ports in China also accelerated year-on-year, reaching 5.6 % according to the latest estimates.

There was also strong growth in throughput volumes across Europe. According to Drewry estimates, container volumes at European ports increased by 5.9 % overall during the reporting period, with ports in the western Mediterranean benefiting most from strong volume growth of 9.9 %.

The trend among the major container ports of the North Range, as well as the largest ports of the Baltic Sea, was mixed. In the Port of Hamburg, throughput volume in the reporting period was 0.9 % up on the previous year at 7.8 million TEU (previous year: 7.7 million TEU). Europe’s largest container port, Rotterdam, handled 13.8 million TEU in 2024, 2.8 % more containers than in the previous year. Container throughput in the port of Antwerp-Bruges rose by 8.1 % to 13.5 million TEU in 2024. Container traffic at the Bremen ports grew in the first eleven months of 2024, with an increase of 7.3 %. The JadeWeserPort in Wilhelmshaven even reported year-on-year throughput growth of 40.6 % to 580 thousand TEU for the first three quarters of 2024. With a year-on-year increase of 9.7 %, the Polish port of Gdansk achieved record throughput volume of 2.2 million TEU.

The study for freight and passenger transport commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Digital Affairs and Transport was most recently published on the basis of data from October 2024 and reflects the outlook for 2024 as a whole. The study forecasts a slight recovery across all modes of freight traffic in Germany in 2024 following a sharp downward trend in the previous year. The only exception is a further weakening of demand for road transport. Transport volumes are expected to decrease by 0.7 % year-on-year, while traffic performance  – transport volume multiplied by the distance travelled – will increase slightly by 0.4 %. Road transport volumes are likely to be down by 1.0 % year-on-year. Traffic performance, however, is expected to stagnate. Rail transport volumes are likely to achieve growth of 0.5 %. Traffic performance will increase by 1.3 %. Following the strong decline in growth in the previous year, a significant recovery is expected in intermodal transport. Volumes will be 3.1 % up and performance 7.3 % up on the previous year.