Macroeconomic outlook

The global economic outlook for 2026 has weakened only slightly relative to the spring forecast. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is expected to grow by 3.0 % in the current year. This estimate assumes that the situation in the Middle East will normalise. The headwinds from the war in Iran will be partly offset by the accelerated momentum of the global technology industry. This trend will be driven in particular by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its increasing use in the economy.

The IMF believes that the risks to this outlook are more balanced than in April, but are still mostly downside overall. The greatest uncertainty remains the possibility of a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. This could prolong the volatility of commodity markets, increase the strain on supply chains, drive up inflation and lead to a deterioration in borrowing conditions. Additional downside effects could arise from an increasing fragmentation of world trade, as well as from a downgrading of the current high expectations for technology-driven growth. Moreover, the scope for economic policy adjustments in many countries is limited due to high debt levels and previous crisis measures, which could further exacerbate the negative trend.

Opportunities for economic growth may arise from a quicker return to normal for energy markets, increased investment in technology, falling trade barriers as a result of greater international cooperation, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening medium-term growth.

With regard to global trade, the IMF forecasts a noticeable slowdown in momentum for 2026. After growing by 5.0 % in the previous year, the volume of global trade is expected to rise by just 3.5 %. In addition to front-loading effects in international trade, this is due to the impact of existing tariffs and the ongoing realignment of global trade and supply chains.

The advanced economies are likely to grow at varying speeds over the remainder of the year. While net energy exporters will benefit from high energy prices and favourable terms-of-trade effects, net energy importers will remain under pressure. Economies that benefit strongly from the momentum created by technology-driven growth are an exception to the above.

The IMF is upholding its forecast of 2.3 % growth for the USA over the forecast period. This trend is supported in particular by robust corporate spending in the technology sector, as well as by relatively favourable borrowing conditions. By contrast, the IMF forecasts a weakening of economic momentum in the eurozone – 0.2 percentage points below its April outlook at 0.9 % for 2026. The main factors are the strain caused by higher energy prices, subdued consumer sentiment and weak economic growth in parts of the eurozone. The IMF has also scaled back its forecast for Germany and now predicts slower economic growth of 0.7 % for 2026 – 0.1 percentage point below its spring outlook.