Macroeconomic outlook

Despite the ongoing tariff disputes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) currently views the prospects for the global economy more favourably than has recently been the case. Global economic growth of 3.0 % is expected for the current year. This upgraded outlook is based on a stronger than anticipated front-loading effect on global trade in response to threatened tariff hikes, lower effective US tariffs than announced in April, improved financial conditions – due in part to a weaker US dollar – and expansionary fiscal policies in certain key countries. Uncertainties remain with regard to US tariff policy and geopolitical tensions.

Growth rates in the advanced economies are expected to vary in the current financial year. The IMF expects stronger economic growth for the USA, as tariffs are likely to be lower than those announced in early April and borrowing conditions will be looser. However, weaker growth is predicted for many other advanced economies.

The IMF is also more optimistic about the eurozone and forecasts stronger economic growth for 2025 – primarily due to the strong growth in Ireland at the start of the year. Economic growth in Germany will remain modest, both within the eurozone and internationally. Despite the multi-billion-euro spending package announced by the new German government for infrastructure and armaments, growth of just 0.1 % is expected for Germany this year.

The volume of global trade for the current year is expected to be higher than previously predicted. However, this increase is mainly due to the front-loading of shipments caused by greater trade policy uncertainty and an expected tightening of trade restrictions. This temporary effect is expected to diminish in the second half of the year.