Macroeconomic development
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy was shaped by contrasting effects in the first half of 2026. Whereas high energy prices and heightened uncertainty resulting from the Middle East conflict weighed on the global economy, AI-driven technology provided significant growth momentum. The economic impact varied widely between regions, depending mainly on the extent to which they were affected by the conflict or involved in global technology-related value chains. Energy-exporting economies outside the conflict zone benefited in particular from the shift in trading conditions. Countries with strong positions in technology-focused industries displayed robust economic development despite higher energy costs. By contrast, energy-importing economies with limited involvement in technology-driven value chains came under increasing pressure.
Overall, however, the global economy proved more resilient than had been expected. Global economic output grew at an annualised rate of 3.0 % in the first quarter of 2026, 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF’s most recent forecast in its World Economic Outlook of April 2026.
The IMF believes that global trade was held back by front-loading effects in trade and production, as well as by the adverse impact of tariffs. Changes in international trade relations and supply chains also led to a gradual shift in trade flows and transport routes. At the same time, technology-related trade continued to grow apace. In particular, the high demand for AI applications, semiconductors and digital infrastructure helped stabilise the development of world trade.
China's economic momentum began to slow in the second quarter of 2026. After growth of 5.0 % in the first quarter, gross domestic product increased by just 4.3 % in the second quarter. As a result, economic growth came in at 4.7 % for the first half-year – still within the corridor of 4.5% to 5.0% set by the Chinese government for the year as a whole. Nevertheless, development was uneven. While manufacturing and exports continued their robust expansion, domestic demand was subdued. According to the IMF, economic growth was dampened by high energy prices, trade policy uncertainties and structural challenges.
In the eurozone, economic momentum slowed during the first half of 2026. The IMF points to rising energy prices and persistently low consumer confidence – despite fiscal incentives – as the main drag on economic growth.
In spite of the headwinds caused by the war in the Middle East, the German economy posted surprising growth in early 2026. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, gross domestic product rose by 0.3 % in the first quarter of 2026, relative to the previous quarter, and thus exceeded expectations. The main drivers were higher private and public consumption, as well as a positive export trend. From January to May 2026, exports increased 3.0 % year-on-year, while imports rose by 3.7 %.