Macroeconomic outlook

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its growth forecast for the global economy marginally by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 % for 2023, growth remains significantly below the historical average. Whereas certain sectors, such as services, are recovering – thanks to shifts from demand for consumer goods – and inflationary pressures are easing, the IMF’s experts forecast a noticeable slowdown in overall global economic growth. In the past year, global economic growth was still at 3.5 %. This adverse situation is particularly noticeable in the eurozone, which is still burdened by energy price hikes in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Against this background, growth in the eurozone is expected to decline to 0.9 % in 2023. As for the German economy, the IMF is now even more pessimistic than in spring and expects Germany to be the only major economy in recession.

In view of faltering gross capital spending and falling industrial output in the major advanced economies, international trade and indicators for demand and production in the manufacturing sector signal a slowdown in momentum. Against this backdrop, the IMF anticipates weaker growth for global trade of 2.0 %.