Macroeconomic outlook
In July 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth forecast for the global economy noticeably once again and now expects global growth of just 3.2 %. This is 0.4 percentage points less than the figure stated in its April forecast. According to the IMF, the effects of inflation, China’s zero-Covid policy and the war in Ukraine were worse than feared. The economists believe that the global economy is heading for recession. For Europe, the numerous – often significant – downgrades since the start of the year reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine and a more restrictive monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the IMF anticipates weaker growth for global trade of 4.1 %.
|
Growth expectation in % |
|
January |
|
April |
|
July |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
World |
|
4.4 |
|
3.6 |
|
3.2 |
||||
|
Advanced economies |
|
3.9 |
|
3.3 |
|
2.5 |
||||
|
USA |
|
4.0 |
|
3.7 |
|
2.3 |
||||
|
Emerging economies |
|
4.8 |
|
3.8 |
|
3.6 |
||||
|
China |
|
4.8 |
|
4.4 |
|
3.3 |
||||
|
Russia |
|
2.8 |
|
- 8.5 |
|
- 6.0 |
||||
|
Eurozone |
|
3.9 |
|
2.8 |
|
2.6 |
||||
|
Central and Eastern Europe (emerging European economies) |
|
3.5 |
|
- 2.9 |
|
- 1.4 |
||||
|
Germany |
|
3.8 |
|
2.1 |
|
1.2 |
||||
|
World trade |
|
6.0 |
|
5.0 |
|
4.1 |
||||
|
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