Macroeconomic development

The latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate that global economic expansion slowed noticeably in 2019. Economic growth was hampered in particular by political conflicts such as the trade dispute between the USA and China, as well as the uncertain outcome of Brexit. Nevertheless, the global economy stabilised towards the end of the year, buoyed by positive signals in the trade dispute.

As a result, the IMF expects restrained growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.9 % for 2019. The advanced economies exhibited weaker growth than in the previous year, due to slower expansion in the United States brought about by a lack of temporary fiscal incentives and weaker export figures. The emerging economies also came under pressure during the course of the year. China only just reached its growth target of 6.0 % to 6.5 % – its slowest growth rate in almost three decades. Following a weak first half of the year, the Russian economy only resumed its upward trend towards the end of the year. For Ukraine, however, the World Bank expects economic growth of 3.6 % on account of the impetus provided by the agricultural and service sectors. Due to a lack of export growth and political strains, the eurozone economy lost further momentum in 2019 and grew by 1.2 % year-on-year. In October 2019, the IMF forecast economic growth of 3.2 % for Estonia in 2019, which is 1.6 percentage points below the prior-year figure. Having shown itself to be surprisingly robust in the face of the weak eurozone economy, underlying economic growth in the Central and Eastern European member states of the European Union (EU) has now begun to slow. The rate of expansion also declined in those Central and Eastern European countries outside the EU, driven primarily by economic turbulence and the geopolitical unpredictability of Turkey. With the upturn in the German economy already having cooled in 2018, economic expansion increasingly faltered over the course of the year. A lack of economic momentum and the trade dispute between the USA and China were reflected in global trade volumes, which only grew marginally by 1.0 % year-on-year.