Sector development

Following only a slight increase in global container throughput in 2019, the market research institute Drewry expects the momentum to increase in 2020 with a growth rate of 3.3 %. However, this forecast does not take into account the latest developments in the trade dispute between the USA and China and the economic impact on global trade of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

In the current financial year, growth will be driven in particular by the shipping regions of Asia (+ 3.4 %), especially South Asia (+ 5.0 %), as well as by Africa (+ 4.2 %) and Latin America (+ 3.4 %). Drewry expects that container throughput growth in China – the Port of Hamburg’s most important shipping region – will be stronger in 2020 than in the comparatively weak previous year, but still clearly below 5 %. Meanwhile, the overall outlook for European shipping regions is much less positive. Experts estimate a growth rate for the European shipping region of just 2.8 % in 2020. Weaker throughput growth is affecting almost all shipping regions. Drewry only forecasts year-on-year growth for the ports of the eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea. For all other European shipping regions, estimates are below the prior-year figures. The effects of the coronavirus have not yet been taken into account in these growth forecasts.

In late February, Drewry issued a qualitative assessment of the impact of the coronavirus. The scenario deemed likely at the moment is based on the assumption that China will be able to contain the virus and thus return to normal business and production activities in the course of the second quarter. Should the focus of the coronavirus epidemic be transferred from one end of the supply chain to the other, however, and high-consumption regions such as Europe and North America in particular are affected, Drewry expects a more pronounced decrease in global GDP. However, the severity of the impact depends on how far the outbreak spreads and the extent to which the affected countries are able to contain it. In this scenario, Drewry expects that the global economy will only begin to recover in 2021. At the same time, however, Drewry’s experts emphasise that there is currently too much uncertainty to be able to make reliable estimates regarding the actual effects.

Considering the ongoing structural overcapacity at container terminals in the North Range and the Baltic Sea, competition between ports is likely to remain fierce in 2020. As Drewry forecasts a slight decrease in demand for the North European ports, the situation is not expected to ease in 2020. At the same time, the bargaining power of shipping companies in negotiations with the port operators has increased significantly as a result of mergers and acquisitions, as well as the formation of new alliances.

The situation on the container shipping market remains strained. According to estimates of the market research institute AXS Alphaliner, the growth in total capacity of the container ship fleet will continue its downward trend in 2020 as a result of declining orders from shipping companies and delayed deliveries. At 3.1 %, growth in total capacity of the container ship fleet is likely to be slower than that of global demand in the forecasting period. Some 200 ships with a carrying capacity of around 1.1 million TEU are expected to be delivered in 2020. Of these, 20 ships will belong to the +18,000-TEU class. As a result of the introduction of the IMO2020 Directive by the International Maritime Organization (IMO)to reduce the use of low-sulphur fuels, market conditions for the shipping companies will remain challenging in 2020. At the same time, Drewry assumes that shipping companies will be able to transfer the extra burden of these higher bunker costs to their customers and expects growth in average freight rates of 6.6 % for the forecasting period. However, the development of freight rates is extremely dependent on highly volatile crude oil prices, which makes it difficult to forecast bunker costs.

In view of the steady increase in ship sizes and the resulting rise in container volumes per ship call, the pressure on terminals and hinterland transport systems will continue to grow.

The most recent medium-term forecast for cargo and passenger transport in Germany issued by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) in September 2019 anticipates accelerated growth for the entire German freight market in 2020. For all modes of freight traffic, experts expect a strong year-on-year increase in both transport volumes and traffic performance (transport volume multiplied by the distance travelled). All carriers are likely to benefit from this accelerated growth. With regard to road freight, transport volumes are expected to increase by 1.9 % and traffic performance by 2.7 % in 2020. Rail freight looks set to return to its longer-term growth trajectory following a few weak years. After a decrease of 1.1 % the previous year, an increase of 1.3 % in rail freight is estimated for the forecasting period. At the same time, traffic performance is once again expected to achieve growth of 2.5 % in 2020. Multi-modal traffic looks set to develop even more dynamically, with volume and performance both expected to increase by 4.6 %.