Outlook macroeconomy and sector

Macroeconomic outlook

In its outlook published in July 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upheld its forecast of 6.0 % global economic growth for 2021. While overall expectations for the industrialised nations were raised, estimates for the emerging economies were downgraded. The adjustments reflect country-specific factors such as the progress of vaccination efforts, as well as political and financial measures. If there is further progress with vaccinations, the IMF assumes that the return to normal will continue in the second half of 2021. These factors are likely to have a positive impact on global trade and the IMF has thus raised its corresponding growth forecast to 9.7 %.

Sector outlook

The forecasts of the market research institute Drewry regarding container throughput in 2021 were subject to significant fluctuations in the first half of the year. In March, expectations for the European shipping regions in particular were significantly downgraded due to renewed, or more stringent, lockdowns and the slow pace of vaccination campaigns. In view of strong economic momentum, falling infection figures and rising vaccination rates in the second quarter, however, the experts upgraded their sector outlook for 2021 again in their June forecast compared with March.

For instance, the upturn in global container throughput is likely to be much significant than previously assumed in March. In comparison to 2019 – leaving out the pandemic year of 2020 – global container throughput is set to increase by 71 million TEU in 2021. Never before have ports had to cope with such a large increase in volume during a single year.