After the global economic upswing expected in the first half of the year failed to materialise, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) once again downscaled its growth forecast for 2015 by 0.2 percentage points in October and now anticipates global GDP growth of 3.1 %. Growth is expected to be driven in particular by persistently low oil prices and favourable financing terms, especially in the advanced economies. The key factors for HHLA, however, are still growth in China – which is set to become even weaker than in previous years at 6.8 % over the full twelve months of 2015 – and the Russian economy, which is expected to shrink by 3.8 % as a result of the Ukraine crisis and the collapse of prices on the international crude oil markets. The IMF anticipates that the eurozone (+ 1.5 %), the emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe (+ 3.0 %) and the German economy (+ 1.5 %) will all remain stable in 2015.
Given the continued slowdown in global economic growth, the IMF has also significantly downgraded its forecast for world trade in 2015 by 0.9 percentage points and now expects an increase of 3.2 %.